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Forecasting as an Operations Management Tool in a Medical Examiner's Office

Bennet I. Omalu is at Tepper Business School, Carnegie-Mellon University 7520 Penn Bridge Court, Pittsburgh, PA 15221, USA. E-mail: bennet.omalu{at}verizon.net

Abdulrezak M. Shakir

Abdulrezak M. Shakir is at College of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh.

Jennifer L. Lindner

Jennifer L. Lindner is at Allegheny County Medical Examiner's Office, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Sridhar R. Tayur

Sridhar R. Tayur is at Tepper Business School, Pittsburgh.

Quantitative analysis in business decision making and operations management has evolved into an independent but non-exclusive alternative to qualitative analysis. We are the first to commoditise the autopsy and establish it as the fundamental cost base/object for a medical examiner's office. We apply the multiplicative seasonal forecasting method for the determination of autopsy demand and the optimal quantitative operations management of a medical examiner's office. Five-year historical data and archives were reviewed at the Allegheny County Medical Examiner's Office, Pennsylvania. The numbers of daily and monthly autopsies performed were collected. Seasonal factors were derived for two seasonal series: days of the week and months of the year. Monday had the lowest seasonal factor of 0.94 and Saturday had the highest of 1.08. October had the lowest seasonal factor of 0.94 and January had the highest at 1.10. Human and other resources may be optimally task-assigned and scheduled based on differential seasonal series forecasting of autopsy demand. Conferences and vacations may also be scheduled on the days and months with lower seasonal factors. Forecasting methods are increasingly becoming an operations management tool in the health and death investigation industries.

Journal of Health Management, Vol. 9, No. 1, 75-84 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/097206340700900105


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